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Your guide to what the 2024 US elections mean for Washington and the world
The author is editor-in-chief of the FT, chief economist at American Compass and writes the Understanding America newsletter.
Washington was brimming with optimism this weekend, but not confidence. At receptions and galas where gossip is the currency, and on podcasts where everyone sells their own version, positivity reigned. “Trump really has a chance to do it. . . ” people said. “There are so many benefits.”
There is no doubt that this is a “change in mood,” as the comments suggest, especially when compared to the senescent presidency that is slowly and painfully coming to an end. The return of a president who can do everything will be a major improvement by default. But the enormous opportunity for reformed governance to usher in a new “golden age,” as the Trump team likes to say, is matched by no certainty about how his administration is likely to proceed. .
Everyone wants to talk about artificial intelligence, for example – but less because of the excitement about superintelligence than about the more mundane potential for improving productivity. The problem is that continuing to improve the models and increase their capacity for large-scale application will require Herculean investments in infrastructure in barely plausible time frames.
In one possible world, Donald Trump and his team focus their economic agenda on construction: rapidly developing natural resources, expanding infrastructure, subsidizing investments, and training the workforce. That would totally make sense, but it’s not something they’ve talked about much. Trump himself is more likely to focus his enthusiasm on cryptocurrencies, while high-profile supporters such as Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy have devoted most of their energy to criticizing American culture and calling for more of foreign workers.
Likewise, untangling the U.S. and Chinese economies has become critically important and Trump has indicated his support for this, including calling for revoking China’s “normal and permanent trade relations” status in the party platform. republican. However, despite the promulgation of a decree in 2020 banning TikTok, he now presents himself as its savior. A law requiring the parent company, ByteDance, to hand over the service to a US company or shut it down by January 19, led to the platform’s demise that day. Users received a notice that the company looked forward to working with Trump to reinstate it. And Trump now says he will do just that. In response, ByteDance brought TikTok back online, much to the delight of users.
Is Trump the China hawk determined to reverse the mistakes of globalization, even if Americans must experience some pain climbing out of the hole they themselves dug? Or is he more interested in scoring points as the president who protected TikTok after his predecessor let it languish?
There are countless similar questions. Will the fight over expanding the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 dominate the legislative calendar for the first year? Will the government adopt humane tactics to deport illegal immigrants to preserve public support for action, or will it proceed in ways that invite backlash and polarization?
Will the administration be content to address the excesses of the higher education system, or will it work just as hard to create new, useful non-academic pathways to good jobs? Will the “Department of Government Effectiveness” focus on government efficiency or will it cause constant agitation outside its scope?
Reasons for optimism lie in the quality of the high-level appointments Trump has made, which represent extraordinary improvements over his first-term picks. If administration discipline and execution have traveled distances as far as a Mike Pence to a JD Vance, a Rex Tillerson to a Marco Rubio, or a Reince Priebus to a Susie Wiles, a new golden age could well be upon us.
Whereas in 2016 Trump overran the supply lines of institutions, ideas and support staff, he can now draw from a deep talent pool and a thick playbook of strategy aligned with his own priorities. In the agencies and offices of the White House, he discreetly supplies his team with serious players.
But the team captain, coach and quarterback remain Trump himself. Few people have bet well on what decisions he will make in the Oval Office, much less predicting that he will do the expected thing that conventional analysis recommends. The fruit is bigger and juicier and lower than ever, and now everyone is waiting to see what they will pick.