By Erin Banco
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Palestinian militant group Hamas has recruited between 10,000 and 15,000 members since its war with Israel began, according to two congressional sources briefed on U.S. intelligence, suggesting Iran-backed fighters could remain a persistent threat to Israel, Israel.
Intelligence indicates that a similar number of Hamas fighters were killed during this period, the sources said. The latest official U.S. estimates have not been previously reported.
Hamas and Israel began a ceasefire on Sunday after 15 months of conflict that has devastated the Gaza Strip and inflamed the Middle East.
The sources told intelligence, which was included in a series of updates from US intelligence agencies in the final weeks of the Biden administration, said that although Hamas had successfully recruited new members, many are young and untrained and are used for simple security purposes.
The U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment.
On January 14, President Joe Biden’s Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, said the United States believed Hamas had recruited almost as many fighters as it had lost in the Palestinian enclave, warning that it was a “recipe for enduring insurrection and perpetual perpetual war.”
He did not provide details of the assessment, but Israeli figures put the total number of militant deaths in Gaza at around 20,000.
“Every time Israel ends its military operations and retreats, Hamas militants regroup and reemerge because there is nothing else to fill the void,” Blinken said. Israel and the United States label Hamas a terrorist group.
Asked for comment, a Hamas official said he was checking with relevant parties in the group. Hamas Armed Wing spokesman Abu Ubaida said in July that the group had been able to recruit thousands of new fighters.
In the days following the ceasefire, Hamas appeared deeply entrenched in Gaza despite Israel’s vow to destroy the militant group. The Hamas-led administration of the territory has moved quickly to reimpose security measures and begin restoring basic services to parts of the Enclave, much of which has been reduced to the whiff of the Israeli offensive .
Since the start of the war, U.S. officials have not said publicly how many fighters Washington believes Hamas has lost, noting only that the group has been significantly degraded and has likely lost thousands.
Warning of continuing threat
U.S. officials have issued similar warnings since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack, in which 1,200 people were killed and more than 250 taken hostage, according to Israeli tallies. More than 46,000 people were killed in the ensuing Israeli assault, according to Palestinian health authorities, whose figures do not differentiate between civilians and fighters.
At a March 2024 congressional hearing, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said the war in Gaza would have “a generational impact on terrorism” and that the crisis had already “galvanized violence by a range of actors of the world.”
Gathering accurate data on Hamas is notoriously difficult due to a lack of verifiable intelligence from inside Gaza and because the group’s recruitment and training efforts are fluid. But official US figures show that before October 7, 2023, Hamas had between 20,000 and 25,000 fighters.
Asked about Blinken’s comments on Wednesday, Israeli Ambassador Danny Danon acknowledged Hamas’ recruitment efforts but played down the threat.
“We know that Hamas recruits young people,” Danon said. “But even if they recruit young people, they don’t have the weapons or the training facilities. So basically, yes, you can incite these young people against Israel, but they can’t become terrorists, because you can’t equip them with weapons or rockets.
After the ceasefire, Israeli troops began returning from some of their positions inside Gaza. The second phase of the ceasefire agreement could bring about a permanent end to the fighting.
The terms of this phase still need to be negotiated.
In his resignation speech Tuesday, Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, Israel’s military leader, said Hamas had been severely damaged and most of the group’s military commanders had been killed. But he said the group had not been eliminated and that the Israel Defense Forces would continue to fight to dismantle Hamas.
One of the most difficult issues related to negotiating the next phases is the governance of post-war Gaza. Some Israeli officials say they will not allow Hamas to remain in power. Hamas has so far not given any land.
Mike Waltz, President Trump’s national security adviser, said Sunday that Hamas would never rule Gaza and if it went through with the deal, Washington would support Israel “doing what it has to do.”