During Donald Trump’s first term, Italian Giorgia Meloni was a fringe far-right politician who ardently admired the US president but had little influence at home, much less in Europe.
From now on, European leaders are counting on Melons – a “fantastic woman”, according to Trump – to persuade the US president to hold back his threat to hit the EU with tariffs to force it to spend more on US defense and energy.
The Italian prime minister was the only European leader present at Trump’s inauguration on Monday, highlighting her ideological and personal affinities with him – just weeks later. dinner with the republican at Mar-a-Lago to garner support for a prisoner exchange with Iran.
“Europe is in a terrible state of weakness and very afraid of losing the protection of the United States, and very afraid that Trump could do something that would be very harmful to Europe,” said Giovanni Orsina, a political scientist at Luiss University in Rome.
The same European establishment that once shunned Meloni because he was a dangerous extremist now appears to have pinned its hopes on her as a “channel of communication” for AssetOrsina said.
Beyond the possible trade war, European leaders fear that Trump could strike a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin over the fate of Ukraine without considering the continent’s security concerns and abandon NATO allies which fail to increase their defense spending.
Italy is particularly vulnerable to Trump’s wrath on this issue because it has failed to meet NATO’s defense spending target of 2% of GDP in 2024. But the US president has until now neglected Rome on the issue, telling reporters Monday that “Spain was very low” and threatening to impose tariffs on the alliance’s biggest laggard in military spending.
Trump said NATO’s new spending target should be 5 percent of GDP, a difficult goal for countries like Italy, France and Germany whose economies are barely growing and have struggling to control public spending and debt.
Meloni’s supporters say his “privileged relationship” with the U.S. administration gives him a better chance than any of his European peers to advocate against tariffs and other punitive measures.
“For any important decision that affects Italy and Europe, Giorgia Meloni will have the chance to be heard,” said Lucio Malan, senator from her right-wing Brotherhood of Italy party. “The voice of Italy will be heard. . . it’s something.
But Meloni may still struggle to act as Europe’s interlocutor to Trump, said Beniamino Irdi, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.
“It is unclear to what extent Trump wants to maintain genuine relations with Europe,” Irdi said. “He has always tended to prefer bilateral relationships with nation states that actually have the authority and the power to make things happen. »
Meloni’s contacts appear to have borne fruit even before Trump’s inauguration. After meeting with the Republican at Mar-a-Lago earlier this month, she secured the release of an Italian journalist from Iran. In exchange, Italy released Mohammed Abedini, an Iranian national wanted by the United States for allegedly smuggling drone technology into Tehran.
The prisoner swap improved Meloni’s approval rating, now higher than when she took office more than two years ago. “By having the courage to turn to Trump, she expressed real leadership and real effectiveness and that was absorbed by public opinion,” said Lorenzo Pregliasco, founder of YouTrend, an Italian pollster.
The Italian Brothers have long had ties to US Republicans and Trump World, with Meloni participating in the National Prayer Breakfast during the first Trump presidency.
In 2018, Steve Bannon, Trump’s “America First” ideologue, was the main attraction at the party’s annual political festival in Rome. In 2023, American billionaire and technology mogul Elon Musk was the special guest. He and Meloni have since formed strong personal and political ties, with his government continuing negotiations with his company SpaceX to secure military communications.
Stefano Stefanini, Italy’s former ambassador to NATO, said that in the coming months Meloni could likely play a “useful softening role” in his discussions with Trump on Ukraine and security, including in trying to persuade him to accept a more gradual increase in defense spending. .
“There is no question of Italy spending 5 percent of its GDP on defense,” he said. “Italy could get to 2 (percent), or even 3 percent, and it could get away with convincing Trump that Italy – along with other European countries – is gradually moving closer to the target.”
But on issues such as the ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine, it is unclear to what extent the US president will listen, Stefanini said.
“There is no proof. . . of any foreign leader who actually influenced Trump’s decisions.”
Meloni could have more success protecting some Italian products from Trump’s tariffs, Stefanini said. But that could lead to friction between Rome and the European Commission, which manages trade policy on behalf of the bloc.
“By maintaining a successful bilateral relationship with Washington, Meloni can show other European leaders that this is the best way to deal with the Trump administration. . . not via Brussels,” Stefanini said.
“It will weaken the EU, but Trump wants a weak EU. »