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Your guide to what the 2024 US elections mean for Washington and the world
“In the first term, everyone was fighting against me,” Donald Trump declared before Christmas. “During this term, everyone wants to be my friend.” He’s right. Eight years ago, Trump faced an angry protest movement that flooded Washington and resisted his short-lived “Muslim ban” in the days after his inauguration. This time there is barely a sound. The opposition’s mood changed from outraged to depressed.
The Democrats are in disarray. In 2017, they had Nancy Pelosi, the party’s most formidable leader in decades. Pelosi’s last major act was helping force Joe Biden to resign last summer. But before that, she impeached Trump twice and maintained an iron grip on his party. This time, the Democrats lack strategy. The default position of cooperating with Trump where they can and opposing him where they must is a recipe for division. Without a helmsman, the group drifts in a Trumpian sea.
The Republicans will not act as a brake either. The most effective blocker against Trump last time was John McCain, the late Arizona senator. Without McCain, Trump would have abolished Obamacare. At the time, there was a large coterie of Republicans in the Senate capable of taking on Trump. Of the seven who voted to convict Trump in early 2021, four — Ben Sasse of Nebraska, Mitt Romney of Utah, Richard Burr of North Carolina and Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania — left. The other three – Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Susan Collins of Maine and Bill Cassidy of Louisiana – are not enough to overturn the majority of their party.
Today’s Supreme Court looks like Maga in a dress. In 2017, the court had a 5-4 conservative majority. But one of its Republican-appointed justices, Anthony Kennedy, was often inclined to side with liberals. With a 6-3 majority this time, the court looks more like a buffer than a check on an unbridled executive. Trump has already issued the challenge. On TikTok, he ignored a bipartisan ban passed by Congress and upheld by the court last week. His defiant attitude is reminiscent of Andrew Jackson, the seventh U.S. president, who reportedly told the chief justice “now let him enforce it” after the court barred the seizure of Cherokee lands. Jackson won.
Trump is already playing the Jacksonian card. In one of his decrees published Monday, he trampled underfoot the 14th Amendment which automatically grants citizenship to anyone born on American soil. The ball is now, so to speak, in the court’s court. As is the case with TikTok. With what force would the judges enforce a decision that Trump chose to ignore? The justices gave Trump almost carte blanche last summer when they ruled presidential immunity for any “official act” — a category so vaguely defined that Trump can do whatever he wants.
Would Trump seek authorization from the Court, or from Congress, to occupy the Panama Canal? Even if it would violate two treaties, the question answers itself. A similar defensive attitude enveloped the media. In 2017, the Washington Post set an industry example by adopting the motto “Democracy Dies in Darkness.” Last week, it added the mission statement “Compelling storytelling for all of America.” Its owner, Jeff Bezos, was among the plutocrats at Trump’s inauguration. Her company, Amazon Prime, is paying first lady Melania Trump $40 million to help her make a documentary about herself. It would surprise me if this was commercially profitable.
So who will stand up to Trump? Allies are as resigned today as they were skeptical during Trump’s first term. The German Angela Merkel was then the first European among her peers. Today, Italian Giorgia Meloni, who was also present at Trump’s inauguration, is the safest leader on the continent. British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, like the others, is struggling to win Trump’s favor. The Danish government might have expected some solidarity after Trump said he wanted to annex Greenland. But so far, the protests have remained silent. If Trump can covet an ally’s territory with impunity, the only control over him seems to be himself.
He is now at the peak of his power. But power tends to fade. In 2026, Republicans could lose control of Congress, and Trump would become a lame duck. At least that’s the story Democrats are investing in. But Trump’s opponents should know that they would inherit a very different country if they win the White House next time. Trump is remaking America in his image. You cannot enter the same river twice.