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Your guide to what the 2024 US elections mean for Washington and the world
Even anti-Donald Trump graffiti on the streets of West Hollywood is now rare and timid. Eight years ago, California was the “resistance” state. It’s a different vibe a visitor encounters in 2025: resignation, boredom with the subject, a “we got it” attitude among thoughtful Democrats, and, at times, something approaching curiosity about the America’s economic potential under a deregulating president.
A big liberal shrug is underway. This has been happening all over the world since Trump won in November, and it’s natural. You can’t be angry all the time. In the European autocracies of the 20th century, people of dissident conscience often carried out what was called “internal migration.” That is, rather than flee or fight, they retreated into private life as the political world darkened around them. Detaching yourself like this is smart, not weak.
Just don’t overdo it. I feel like liberals have allowed a healthy acceptance of electoral reality to turn into hope that Trump’s second term won’t be so bad. Please.
Three things blunted Trump’s impact last time. None of them currently apply. First, he aspired to be re-elected. This gave him an incentive to provoke the median voter to a certain extent, but no more. (The speed with which he disavowed the slightly theocratic 2025 plan last summer showed how keen this alleged hothead is to avoid unnecessary unpopularity.) Unless something happens to the 22nd Amendment, Trump is now freed from the innate discipline of electoral politics. Even the midterm elections don’t mean much, since the race to succeed him will begin right after. Presidents serving a second term have two years.
What else? His first administration was populated with enough old-fashioned Republicans – Gary Cohn, Rex Tillerson – to rein in his excesses. He is now spoiled for choice when it comes to civil servants and cabinet secretaries who are in the Maga mould. Tulsi Gabbard could soon take over as head of American intelligence. There is nothing stoic or urban about dismissing this.
Above all, the world in 2017 was stable enough to absorb a certain amount of chaos. Inflation was low and Europe was at peace. The last major pandemic in the West dates back a century. It is on much more fragile canvases that Trump will this time launch his customs tariffs and his escapades abroad.
We could continue down this path, citing practical and contingent reasons for concern. We could mention the federal judiciary, which is more Trump-tinged today than it was when he took office. Will this constrain him? We could also mention that he will be 82 years old when he retires. Last time, he had to think about the legal exposure, earning potential and social reputation he would have in his post-presidential life. Will it be such a factor now?
But ultimately, my argument – and many political comments – comes down to instinct. There’s a hubris in the world of Maga right now that simply didn’t exist in 2017, in part because Trump didn’t win the popular vote. Let’s talk about much higher economic growth, territorial conquest, putting an American flag on Mars: if that doesn’t make you feel the pride before the fall, the imminence of an excess of scope, then we have just different antennas. (And I hope I’m wrong.) In all democracies, a party is never more dangerous than when it has another electoral success. The difference with the United States lies in the scale of the stakes for the outside world. Think of George W. Bush after his historically good midterm elections in 2002, or Lyndon Johnson’s escalation in Vietnam after 1964, when his vote stack could be seen from space.
Yes, a war of choice is unlikely under Trump. (Even though events can push leaders to unusual actions. Remember, Bush’s perception before 9/11 was that he was an inactive isolationist.) It is more likely that a wave of tariffs will trigger a uncontrollable global response, or that the economy will be directed. too hot, or the Constitution will creak to the breaking point as Trump seeks to reward his friends and hound his enemies. At least there will be internal recriminations when it becomes clear that America’s public debt, urban squalor, and other problems do not lend themselves to a techno-libertarian solution.
Whatever the precise shape of the coming chaos, the relative lack of concern about it is what stands out from eight years ago. The liberal line in 2025 looks like this: We overdid the panic about Trump last time, so let’s not repeat the mistake. Neither half of this proposition survives even the slightest intellectual audit. Panic was this is upheld, unless the two indictments – one for seeking to overturn the outcome of an election – don’t count one way or another. Also, even if the first term wasn’t that bad, why assume that the second will be just as bad? Trump and his movement are now much more serious entities. His inaugural speech this week was tremendous in terms of vision and expression.
None of this means that those who dislike Trump should follow this man’s advice to “fight, fight, fight.” Protest and activism have been dead ends for Democrats. But if self-importance was bad, so is self-doubt. The lesson of the 2024 election for the Liberals was, or should have been, narrow: stop choosing useless candidates. This has somehow morphed into a broader crisis of confidence about the correctness of their underlying assessment of Trump as a threat. Being vindicated in years to come won’t be fun at all.